This is the finite-source model plotted with SCEDC foreshocks and aftershocks. The circles are scaled to 120 bar stress drop (the average stress drop from the finite-source model.

Best

Doug

 Here is a slip distribution measured from image correlation of planetlabs data. 

I have attached a figure and a data table.

Error is 1 sigma uncertainty. 

Values are measured on the major primary strand and dont account for the secondary strand that splays at around 35.8 deg. Latitude.

I will driving up to the clearinghouse today with Julian Lozos

Chris Milliner

 Here is .kml and .kmz of northern rupture trace mapped from image correlaiton. Might be handy. 

From Kate Thomas (CGS):

CGS is currently using Collector for ArcGIS on behalf of the Clearinghouse to acquire data on surface fault rupture, landslides, and liquefaction. Data are being downloaded from ArcGIS Online (AGOL), by python script, every hour and being converted to KMZs and GeoJSONs. These files, along with a geodatabase, is being zipped, timestamped, and place on http://gmw.conservation.ca.gov/CGS_Emergency_Responses/ for you to download and use as needed.
 
Please note, there may be times when you download a new zip file and the KMZs and GeoJSONs have not been updated. Many of the geologist are using Collector in the offline mode. This means data will not be sync'd to AGOL until they do it manually when back from the field. These data, however, will be available within an hour of the time they manually sync to AGOL.
 
Also, this is the first time we are using Collector and the download script and have been trouble shooting the script over the past couple of days. We believe the script is now working, however, we are monitoring it closely and will fix it as quickly as possible if it encounters issues.
 
Please feel free to contact Kate Thomas at Kate.Thomas@conservation.ca.gov if you have any questions.

 Attached is a (somewhat disorganized) kmz of yesterday's observations (mostly from Ben Brooks, USGS) and some from this morning provided by Ian Pierce (UNR).  Going forward, I'm expecting this will improve.  CGS is set up to quickly generate kmzs from data collected from CGS geologists and we have more people to help with compilation.  There will be much more info once the field teams return this evening and get their data to the Clearinghouse and their institutions.  Thanks for your patience!

Tim Dawson

 Quick update on some of today's activities:

USGS and CGS teams are in two helicopters conducting aerial recon over the base as well as to the southeast to the area where Ian Pierce has observed rupture crossing the railroad tracks and beyond.

USGS-ers Ryan Gold and Jessie JobeThompson will be starting at highway 178 (30 cm of reported r-l) and working their way to the southeast.

Jerry Treiman (CGS) is looking for triggered slip.  None was observed where Highway 395 crosses the Garlock fault.  Jerry will continue to look at the Little Lake Fault Zone in the City of Ridgecrest.

Teams from the USGS and CGS are conducting a helicopter reconniassance overflight of the rupture extent on base at this time.

Ben Brooks reports 30cm right lateral surface rupture of highway 178 at 35.64906 -117.48221.

Hi All: 

      Just got back from Shenzhen - playing catch-up. 

Greg

(Lower probabilities than initial forecast because time has passed since mainshock and this is now a sequence specific forecast.  Sequence so far is slightly less active than generic parameters for region)

According to our forecast, over the next 1 Week there is a 4 % chance of one or more aftershocks that are larger than magnitude 7.1. It is likely that there will be smaller earthquakes over the next 1 Week, with 360 to 660 magnitude 3 or higher aftershocks. Magnitude 3 and above are large enough to be felt near the epicenter. The number of aftershocks will drop off over time, but a large aftershock can increase the numbers again, temporarily.

More details about the earthquake forecast are provided in the section “Our detailed aftershock forecast” below.

This forecast is based on preliminary data and may change as the catalog of earthquakes is updated and improved. It will also be changed as new earthquakes occur and time passes.

So far in this sequence there have been 136 magnitude 3 or higher earthquakes, which are strong enough to be felt, and 4 magnitude 5 or higher earthquakes, which are large enough to do damage.

The USGS estimates the chance of more aftershocks as follows: Within the next 1 Week until 2019-07-13 07:40:00 (UTC):

• The chance of an earthquake of magnitude 3 or higher is > 99 %, and it is most likely that as few as 360 or as many as 660 such earthquakes may occur in the case that the sequence is re-invigorated by a larger aftershock.
• The chance of an earthquake of magnitude 5 or higher is > 99 %, and it is most likely that as few as 0 or as many as 11 such earthquakes may occur.
• The chance of an earthquake of magnitude 6 or higher is 39 %, and it is most likely that as few as 0 or as many as 3 such earthquakes may occur.
• The chance of an earthquake of magnitude 7 or higher is 5 %, such an earthquake is possible but with a low probability.

This forecast was issued: 2019-07-06 07:36:05 (UTC)

This forecast will be updated on or before 2019-07-13 07:36:05 (UTC)

Precise point position measurements of peak ground displacement from streaming 1Hz data at stations near the larger event estimate a ~M7.  Credit Kathleen Hodgkinson. 

Plans are underway for another round of 5Hz downloads, this time for stations out to ~800km.

Be ready for more earthquakes

• More earthquakes than usual (called aftershocks) will continue to occur near the mainshock.

• When there are more earthquakes, the chance of a large earthquake is greater which means that the chance of damage is greater.

• The USGS advises everyone to be aware of the possibility of aftershocks, especially when in or around vulnerable structures such as unreinforced masonry buildings.

• This earthquake could be part of a sequence. An earthquake sequence may have larger and potentially damaging earthquakes in the future, so remember to: Drop, Cover, and Hold on.

According to our forecast, over the week starting on July 6, 2019 at 04:10 UTC, there is a 9 % chance of one or more aftershocks that are larger than magnitude 7.1. It is likely that there will be smaller earthquakes over the next 1 Week, with 250 to 3,600 magnitude 3 or higher aftershocks. Magnitude 3 and above are large enough to be felt near the epicenter. The number of aftershocks will drop off over time, but a large aftershock can increase the numbers again, temporarily.

More details about the earthquake forecast are provided in the section “Our detailed aftershock forecast” below.

This forecast is based purely on experience with past sequences in geothermal areas of California, including in this area.

So far in this sequence there have been 0 magnitude 3 or higher earthquakes, which are strong enough to be felt, and 0 magnitude 5 or higher earthquakes, which are large enough to do damage.

The USGS estimates the chance of more aftershocks as follows: Within the next 1 Week until 2019-07-13 04:10:00 (UTC):

• The chance of an earthquake of magnitude 3 or higher is > 99 %, and it is most likely that as few as 250 or as many as 3,600 such earthquakes may occur in the case that the sequence is re-invigorated by a larger aftershock.

• The chance of an earthquake of magnitude 5 or higher is > 99 %, and it is most likely that as few as 2 or as many as 37 such earthquakes may occur.

• The chance of an earthquake of magnitude 6 or higher is 61 %, and it is most likely that as few as 0 or as many as 5 such earthquakes may occur.

• The chance of an earthquake of magnitude 7 or higher is 11 %, and it is most likely that as few as 0 or as many as 2 such earthquakes may occur.

No one can predict the exact time or place of any earthquake, including aftershocks. Our earthquake forecasts give us an understanding of the chances of having more earthquakes within a given time period in the affected area. We calculate this earthquake forecast using a statistical analysis based on past earthquakes.

Our forecast changes as time passes due to decline in the frequency of aftershocks, larger aftershocks that may trigger further earthquakes, and changes in forecast modeling based on the data collected for this earthquake sequence.

This forecast was issued: 2019-07-06 04:03:05 (UTC)

This forecast will be updated on or before 2019-07-13 04:03:05 (UTC)

Attached are some quick plots of the 1Hz positions for nearby stations provided by D. Mencin.  P595 had ~490mm of ground displacement during the second event (~113mm in the M6.4 foreshock).