From Elizabeth Lemersal (USGS): http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/christchurch-earthquake/4692244/Miracle-...

Notes from NEHRP New Zealand Earthquake Coordination calls shared via email. Please also see attachments below.

February 25, 2011 Notes from David Applegate (USGS), sent 12:57 AM EST:

Today's call had participants from all four NEHRP agencies (NIST, FEMA, NSF and USGS), Office of Science and Technology Policy, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI), Geo-engineering Extreme Event Reconnaissance (GEER) team, Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), UNAVCO, and Duke.

There was a lively discussion on the types of questions coming from the media as well as public officials, and we have an action item for the group to provide bullets that can go into talking points to address issues being raised including implications for US seismic hazard, the need to better assess aftershock projections, and why so much damage to apparently modern structures in addition to the extensive damage to unreinforced brick buildings and infrastucture. Please send them to me (applegate@usgs.gov) and Mike Blanpied (mblanpied@usgs.gov). We will be working with Lucy Jones, Walter Mooney, and others to pull those together and share back -- volunteers welcome.

Following up from last call, I obtained initial feedback from Terry Webb, head of the Natural Hazards group at GNS Science, the government-owned science agency (Crown research institution) that is responsible for earthquake monitoring and research in New Zealand. Ongoing collaboration between New Zealand and US scientists and engineers is much appreicated. Given the moderate size of the event and existing sensor deployments, there were no instrument needs identified. A landslide response is underway, and there may be interest in partnering on liquefaction hazard maps. Remote sensing coverage is looking good and appreciative of US support on that. The big challenge is expected to be with geotechnical and building investigations. Mobilization is awaiting the return of services. The planned US deployments should be useful. Kelvin Berryman (K.Berryman@ngs.cri.nz) will be their point person in Christchurch, where he arrives today to coordinate research response along with Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management. Any public announcements on aftershock forecasts is being coordinated closely with national emergency management services.

Paul Earle and Harley Benz provided an NEIC update. Collaboration continues with New Zealand counterparts. They are working to address a magnitude-offset of up to 0.5 units between what GNS is reporting and the USGS regional moment magnitude calculation.The USGS has posted a podcast about this earthquake on our home page. It is an interview with Rob Williams, our coordinator for Central US earthquake hazards, at http://www.usgs.gov/corecast/details.asp?ep=145

With respect to US response efforts, EERI is submitting a RAPID proposal to NSF for a research-focused reconnaissance team. They are coordinating with many organizations, and current thinking is to delay deployment for another week or two. Russell Green reported on the GEER team deployment which will have 6 people in-country March 1-6. Among their activities, they plan to do shear-wave profiling for seismic stations that do not have good site characterization. A possible second wave led by Tom O'Rourke and focused on lifelines and infrastructure will likely go later, possibly in tandem with ASCE Technical Council on Lifeline Earthquake Engineering (TCLEE). UNAVCO's Freddy Blume reported that discussions with New Zealand counterparts indicated that they did not have specific geodetic instrumentation needs at this time.

Brenda Jones provided a report on the activation of the International Charter Space and Major Disasters. When post-event data acquired under the charter is loaded on the USGS Hazards Data Distribution System, Brenda will send around the URL to this group. For those who have specific areas of interest outside the urban area, please let Brenda (bkjones@usgs.gov) or Rynn Lamb (lamb@usgs.gov) know. Also if there is interest in the imagery made available for last September's magnitude-7 quake near Darfield. The question was raised about whether help was needed in analysis of remote sensing data, and EERI indicated the need for oblique imagery for building damage analysis.

Other topics raised included possible impulsive basin-edge surface waves, the need to capture the experience of this quake to learn about interagency interactions, science communication to politicians, emergency repsonse and other factors; and social science investigations.

Again, thanks all!

February 23, 2011 Notes from David Applegate (USGS), sent 2:32 AM EST:

As it currently stands, news reports indicate that the earthquake has resulted in at least 75 deaths with hundreds more injured, and significant damage to buildings and infrastructure. As many as 100 people may remain trapped in collapsed buildings. Preliminary cost estimates being reported are $12 billion. Estimates being given by the New Zealand government for the Sep. 3, 2010 magnitude-7 quake in nearby Darfield are $4.5 to $6 billion (converted to US dollars).

As reported on the call, the USGS National Earthquake Information Center's PAGER system issued a Red Alert for earthquake shaking impacts, including a Yellow Alert for fatalities (1-100) and Red Alert for economic losses ($1-100 billion). NEIC worked closely with colleagues at GNS Science in New Zealand, which maintains their national earthquake monitoring system, to improve location accuracy. The NEIC tectonic summary, PAGER results, Did You Feel It reports and more are at http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqinthenews/2011/usb0001igm/ . Since the call, the USGS has an updated earthquake summary poster available at http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/poster/2011/20110221.php . It has been improved with recent seismicity showing the aftershock zone.

A topic of discussion on the call was afershock forecasting, and I have subsequently reached out to the head of GNS Science's Natural Hazards Division to offer assistance from our statistical seismologists, following up on contacts already made from Tom Jordan at the Southern California Earthquake Center. So far there have been two magnitude-5+ aftershocks and 10 magnitude-4+ ones from this earthquake.

It was clear from the call that just in the few hours since the earthquake, many connections had already been made with colleagues in New Zealand, and all of the teams considering deployments planned to undertake their studies in close collaboration with New Zealand experts. We heard from Russell Green that the Geo-Engineering Extreme Events Reconaissance (GEER) team is planning to send a 4-6 person team arriving March 1 for a week. The ASCE Technical Council on Lifeline Earthquake Engineering (TCLEE) may send a team in a few weeks to look at lifelines once damages have been more fully assessed. Jay Berger reported that EERI is in discussions with NSF about sending a multi-disciplinary team to look at impacts to old and new buildings, fire following earthquake, insurance fund impacts, and other issues. The team would be in-country for 5-7 days, leaving as early as a week from now. UNAVCO has been in touch with colleagues at GNS regarding GPS sensor availability, and IRIS reported that 10 rapid-deployment portable seismic stations were available if requested. The USGS may also have some portable seismometers that could be deployed on request.

As reported in real time during the call, New Zealand's Disaster Management Agency has activated the International Charter Space and Major Disasters. For those who have specific areas of interest outside the urban area, please let Brenda Jones know or Ren Lamb. Also if there is interest in the imagery made available for last September's magnitude-7 quake near Darfield.

It was noted that there was a Quakecatcher deployment of laptop-based sensors. According to a follow-up report via NSF, they have about 50 sensors currently installed in and around Christchurch left from larger deployment following the Darfield quake in September. Approximately 8-15 of the remaining stations are consistently reporting triggers from the ongoing sequence. A map of the continuously recording stations can be found at http://qcn.stanford.edu/continual/maptrig.php?timeint=D . Those interested can get in touch with Elizabeth Cochran.

Since the call, we have learned that USAID is deploying a Disaster Assistance Response Team (DART) including an urban search and rescue (USAR) team from Los Angeles County to join teams from New Zealand, Australia, Japan, Taiwan, and the United Kingdom.

I put together a short PPT on the event for class tomorrow. See attached in case it is useful. ramon 

Here is a website that shows the epicenters as a function of time with a circle corresponding to magnitude.

http://www.christchurchquakemap.co.nz/

Apparently the mechanism for this event is thrust. The reported depth is 5 km although I haven't heard of any reports of surface rupture (is this true?).  The absence of surface rupture would suggest a "blind" rupture (e.g. like 1994 Northridge).  The combination of blind rupture + thrust mechanism generates relatively strong radiated ground motions, particulalry in the frequency range 0.5 to 5 Hz, which is bad for the types of structures that are typical of Christchurch.

Images of damage from this earthquake, e.g.:

 http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/gallery/2011/feb/22/new-zealand-earthquake-in-pictures?INTCMP=ILCNETTXT3487#/

underscore the vulnerability of masonry construction to a near field source even in the low M6's. There are some who believe that the seismic risks to cities of the central US are overblown, and that a city such as St Louis could ride out such a quake with no more than chimney damage. Yesterday's earthquake is a sobering counter-example.
 

Here are ShakeMaps generated from a simulation of the Southern California ShakeOut scenario using the Broadband Platform, with about 100 stations.  Broadband results are interpolated over a Campbell and Bozorgnia 2008 basemap.  Included are maps for 2 and 3 seconds SA, PGA, and PGV.

The SIO team (5 people) is heading to La Puente to deploy GPS receivers near the rupture. We are taking 8 GPS sets now, and another team led by Sadnwell (4 people) will be bringing 4 more in the afternoon. We will set a base camp at the WORK site, 33.991714N 118.002892W, and begin a survey of existing benchmarks in the area. 2 receivers will be set in a "permanent" mode on both sides of the rupture to capture shallow afterslip.

Instrumentation on the shelf at PIC 

- 240 broadbands (120 sec)

- 60 x 1 or 2 Hz

- 220 dataloggers

All scheduled to go into the field next few month.  Would need NSF approval to deploy in response to these events.

Current PASSCAL deployments in CA and surround:

- Frank Vernon: 19 instruments deployed on the San Jacinto Fault

- Simon Klemperer: NE Nevada 50 broadbands

 PASSCAL RAMP instrumentation (10 broadband + 10 accelerometers) are currently deployed in New Zealand.

Currently evaluating other instrumentation available at the PASSCAL Instrument Center

 I have designated Jack Boatwright the Scientific Response Coordinator for the USGS response to the Hayward earthquake.