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  • milliner
    2019.07.04 - M6.4 Searles Valley, California and 2019.07.05-M7.1 Indian Wells Valley, CA   6 weeks 1 day ago

     Here is .kml and .kmz of northern rupture trace mapped from image correlaiton. Might be handy. 

  • milliner
    2019.07.04 - M6.4 Searles Valley, California and 2019.07.05-M7.1 Indian Wells Valley, CA   6 weeks 1 day ago

     I now have an optical image correlaiton result for the northern 16 km of the rupture. Attached file is very preliminary so I'm hoping at the moment it gives a first-orer overview of rupture extent, but I am working to improve resolution and noise to have something useable. I will uplod improved correlaiton in a couple of hours as well as slip distribution.

     

    Unfortunately there are no optical images south of this area, will have to wait until 1.00 pm ish tomorrow. 

     

    Chris  

  • huynht
    2019.07.04 - M6.4 Searles Valley, California and 2019.07.05-M7.1 Indian Wells Valley, CA   6 weeks 1 day ago

    From Kate Thomas (CGS):

    CGS is currently using Collector for ArcGIS on behalf of the Clearinghouse to acquire data on surface fault rupture, landslides, and liquefaction. Data are being downloaded from ArcGIS Online (AGOL), by python script, every hour and being converted to KMZs and GeoJSONs. These files, along with a geodatabase, is being zipped, timestamped, and place on http://gmw.conservation.ca.gov/CGS_Emergency_Responses/ for you to download and use as needed.
     
    Please note, there may be times when you download a new zip file and the KMZs and GeoJSONs have not been updated. Many of the geologist are using Collector in the offline mode. This means data will not be sync'd to AGOL until they do it manually when back from the field. These data, however, will be available within an hour of the time they manually sync to AGOL.
     
    Also, this is the first time we are using Collector and the download script and have been trouble shooting the script over the past couple of days. We believe the script is now working, however, we are monitoring it closely and will fix it as quickly as possible if it encounters issues.
     
    Please feel free to contact Kate Thomas at Kate.Thomas@conservation.ca.gov if you have any questions.

  • dreger
    2019.07.04 - M6.4 Searles Valley, California and 2019.07.05-M7.1 Indian Wells Valley, CA   6 weeks 1 day ago

     

    I have prepared a finite-source model for the July 6 event. A pdf is attached with a station map, waveform fits, and the slip distribution.

    Doug

  • dawson
    2019.07.04 - M6.4 Searles Valley, California and 2019.07.05-M7.1 Indian Wells Valley, CA   6 weeks 1 day ago

     Attached is a (somewhat disorganized) kmz of yesterday's observations (mostly from Ben Brooks, USGS) and some from this morning provided by Ian Pierce (UNR).  Going forward, I'm expecting this will improve.  CGS is set up to quickly generate kmzs from data collected from CGS geologists and we have more people to help with compilation.  There will be much more info once the field teams return this evening and get their data to the Clearinghouse and their institutions.  Thanks for your patience!

     

    Tim Dawson

  • huynht
    2019.07.04 - M6.4 Searles Valley, California and 2019.07.05-M7.1 Indian Wells Valley, CA   6 weeks 1 day ago

    The next briefing of the CA Eaarthquake Clearinghouse will be on Saturday, July 6, 2019 at 7:00 PM Pacific Time.

    In-person Location:
    For those in the field now, you are encouraged to attend the briefing in person. The physical clearinghouse location is at:

    California Earthquake Clearinghouse
    Red Rock Canyon room
    Kerr McGee Building
    100 W California Avenue
    Ridgecrest, CA
    (near Freedom Park at the back entrance of building, by Red Cross activities)       

    Virtual GoToMeeting connection information:
    Web Link: https://global.gotomeeting.com/join/371768445
    Call-in Phone number: +1 (646) 749-3122
    Access Code: 371-768-445

  • dawson
    2019.07.04 - M6.4 Searles Valley, California and 2019.07.05-M7.1 Indian Wells Valley, CA   6 weeks 1 day ago

     Quick update on some of today's activities:

    USGS and CGS teams are in two helicopters conducting aerial recon over the base as well as to the southeast to the area where Ian Pierce has observed rupture crossing the railroad tracks and beyond.

    USGS-ers Ryan Gold and Jessie JobeThompson will be starting at highway 178 (30 cm of reported r-l) and working their way to the southeast.

    Jerry Treiman (CGS) is looking for triggered slip.  None was observed where Highway 395 crosses the Garlock fault.  Jerry will continue to look at the Little Lake Fault Zone in the City of Ridgecrest.

     

  • oskin
    2019.07.04 - M6.4 Searles Valley, California and 2019.07.05-M7.1 Indian Wells Valley, CA   6 weeks 1 day ago

     From Ian Pierce:

    Southern terminus is within 1 km south from 35.5820250, -117.3831751

     

     

    There's a series of transverse./perpendicular extensional cracks and the mole track ends. 1m rl offset at these coordinates.

     

  • oskin
    2019.07.04 - M6.4 Searles Valley, California and 2019.07.05-M7.1 Indian Wells Valley, CA   6 weeks 1 day ago

    Teams from the USGS and CGS are conducting a helicopter reconniassance overflight of the rupture extent on base at this time.

    Ben Brooks reports 30cm right lateral surface rupture of highway 178 at 35.64906 -117.48221.

  • jlozos
    2019.07.04 - M6.4 Searles Valley, California and 2019.07.05-M7.1 Indian Wells Valley, CA   6 weeks 1 day ago

     Maybe I'm too late with this, but I'm glad to help. Will be out and about for much of today, but can talk to people on the phone, and will be around in the coming days.

    Full name: Julian Lozos

    Title: Assistant Professor of Geophysics

    Institution: California State University, Northridge

    Cell Phone: 415-860-6593

    Email: julian.lozos@csun.edu

  • beroza
    2019.07.04 - M6.4 Searles Valley, California and 2019.07.05-M7.1 Indian Wells Valley, CA   6 weeks 1 day ago

    Hi All: 

          Just got back from Shenzhen - playing catch-up. 

    Greg

  • milliner
    2019.07.04 - M6.4 Searles Valley, California and 2019.07.05-M7.1 Indian Wells Valley, CA   6 weeks 1 day ago

    I have received before and after Planet Scope satellite imagery (3 m resolution) for the Mw 6.4 event. I am in process of applying standard image correlation analysis to measure the surface deformation field. 

    Preliminary results indicate first-order features can be resolved including, surface displacement, fault trace and fault slip. I will share these measurements once processed (a few hours from now).

    I am in dicussions with Planetlabs to see if I can also share the original images (which are licensed), and not just the derivative products listed above. 

    Chris Milliner

  • pagem
    2019.07.04 - M6.4 Searles Valley, California and 2019.07.05-M7.1 Indian Wells Valley, CA   6 weeks 2 days ago

    (Lower probabilities than initial forecast because time has passed since mainshock and this is now a sequence specific forecast.  Sequence so far is slightly less active than generic parameters for region)

    What we think will happen next

    According to our forecast, over the next 1 Week there is a 4 % chance of one or more aftershocks that are larger than magnitude 7.1. It is likely that there will be smaller earthquakes over the next 1 Week, with 360 to 660 magnitude 3 or higher aftershocks. Magnitude 3 and above are large enough to be felt near the epicenter. The number of aftershocks will drop off over time, but a large aftershock can increase the numbers again, temporarily.

    More details about the earthquake forecast are provided in the section “Our detailed aftershock forecast” below.

    About this earthquake and related aftershocks

    This forecast is based on preliminary data and may change as the catalog of earthquakes is updated and improved. It will also be changed as new earthquakes occur and time passes.

    So far in this sequence there have been 136 magnitude 3 or higher earthquakes, which are strong enough to be felt, and 4 magnitude 5 or higher earthquakes, which are large enough to do damage.

    Our detailed aftershock forecast

    The USGS estimates the chance of more aftershocks as follows: Within the next 1 Week until 2019-07-13 07:40:00 (UTC):

    • The chance of an earthquake of magnitude 3 or higher is > 99 %, and it is most likely that as few as 360 or as many as 660 such earthquakes may occur in the case that the sequence is re-invigorated by a larger aftershock.
    • The chance of an earthquake of magnitude 5 or higher is > 99 %, and it is most likely that as few as 0 or as many as 11 such earthquakes may occur.
    • The chance of an earthquake of magnitude 6 or higher is 39 %, and it is most likely that as few as 0 or as many as 3 such earthquakes may occur.
    • The chance of an earthquake of magnitude 7 or higher is 5 %, such an earthquake is possible but with a low probability.

    This forecast was issued: 2019-07-06 07:36:05 (UTC)

    This forecast will be updated on or before 2019-07-13 07:36:05 (UTC)

  • fialko
    2019.07.04 - M6.4 Searles Valley, California and 2019.07.05-M7.1 Indian Wells Valley, CA   6 weeks 2 days ago

    Does anyone know which sites are surveyed by the USGS team? I am out of town until Jul 9. Dave Sandwell will be taking several GPS setups  to the area tomorrow (Sunday Jul 7).

    Yuri

     

  • walls
    2019.07.04 - M6.4 Searles Valley, California and 2019.07.05-M7.1 Indian Wells Valley, CA   6 weeks 2 days ago

    Precise point position measurements of peak ground displacement from streaming 1Hz data at stations near the larger event estimate a ~M7.  Credit Kathleen Hodgkinson. 

    Plans are underway for another round of 5Hz downloads, this time for stations out to ~800km.

  • fielding
    2019.07.04 - M6.4 Searles Valley, California and 2019.07.05-M7.1 Indian Wells Valley, CA   6 weeks 2 days ago

    In addition to the two Sentinel-1 tracks (A064 and D071) that cover the epicentral area of the Mw6.4 and Mw7.1 (is that stable now?) quakes, there are two more tracks to the west. Those two tracks (D144 and A137) should be imaged on July 9 (UTC), a day earlier than the central tracks. The ARIA data system processing Area of Interest has been expanded to cover the larger area of the M7.1 quake.

    ++Eric

  • pagem
    2019.07.04 - M6.4 Searles Valley, California and 2019.07.05-M7.1 Indian Wells Valley, CA   6 weeks 2 days ago

    Be ready for more earthquakes

    • More earthquakes than usual (called aftershocks) will continue to occur near the mainshock.

    • When there are more earthquakes, the chance of a large earthquake is greater which means that the chance of damage is greater.

    • The USGS advises everyone to be aware of the possibility of aftershocks, especially when in or around vulnerable structures such as unreinforced masonry buildings.

    • This earthquake could be part of a sequence. An earthquake sequence may have larger and potentially damaging earthquakes in the future, so remember to: Drop, Cover, and Hold on.

    What we think will happen next

    According to our forecast, over the week starting on July 6, 2019 at 04:10 UTC, there is a 9 % chance of one or more aftershocks that are larger than magnitude 7.1. It is likely that there will be smaller earthquakes over the next 1 Week, with 250 to 3,600 magnitude 3 or higher aftershocks. Magnitude 3 and above are large enough to be felt near the epicenter. The number of aftershocks will drop off over time, but a large aftershock can increase the numbers again, temporarily.

    More details about the earthquake forecast are provided in the section “Our detailed aftershock forecast” below.

    About this earthquake and related aftershocks

    This forecast is based purely on experience with past sequences in geothermal areas of California, including in this area.

    So far in this sequence there have been 0 magnitude 3 or higher earthquakes, which are strong enough to be felt, and 0 magnitude 5 or higher earthquakes, which are large enough to do damage.

    Our detailed aftershock forecast

    The USGS estimates the chance of more aftershocks as follows: Within the next 1 Week until 2019-07-13 04:10:00 (UTC):

    • The chance of an earthquake of magnitude 3 or higher is > 99 %, and it is most likely that as few as 250 or as many as 3,600 such earthquakes may occur in the case that the sequence is re-invigorated by a larger aftershock.

    • The chance of an earthquake of magnitude 5 or higher is > 99 %, and it is most likely that as few as 2 or as many as 37 such earthquakes may occur.

    • The chance of an earthquake of magnitude 6 or higher is 61 %, and it is most likely that as few as 0 or as many as 5 such earthquakes may occur.

    • The chance of an earthquake of magnitude 7 or higher is 11 %, and it is most likely that as few as 0 or as many as 2 such earthquakes may occur.

    About our earthquake forecasts

    No one can predict the exact time or place of any earthquake, including aftershocks. Our earthquake forecasts give us an understanding of the chances of having more earthquakes within a given time period in the affected area. We calculate this earthquake forecast using a statistical analysis based on past earthquakes.

    Our forecast changes as time passes due to decline in the frequency of aftershocks, larger aftershocks that may trigger further earthquakes, and changes in forecast modeling based on the data collected for this earthquake sequence.

    This forecast was issued: 2019-07-06 04:03:05 (UTC)

    This forecast will be updated on or before 2019-07-13 04:03:05 (UTC)

  • oskin
    2019.07.04 - M6.4 Searles Valley, California and 2019.07.05-M7.1 Indian Wells Valley, CA   6 weeks 2 days ago

    Here's a photo Ian Pierce posted to Twitter. Looks like right lateral slip.

     

     

  • walls
    2019.07.04 - M6.4 Searles Valley, California and 2019.07.05-M7.1 Indian Wells Valley, CA   6 weeks 2 days ago

    Attached are some quick plots of the 1Hz positions for nearby stations provided by D. Mencin.  P595 had ~490mm of ground displacement during the second event (~113mm in the M6.4 foreshock).

  • wesnousky
    2019.07.04 - M6.4 Searles Valley, California and 2019.07.05-M7.1 Indian Wells Valley, CA   6 weeks 2 days ago

     Ian Pierce and Rich Koehler tell me ~1m vertical scarp on 178 about km east of earlier event scarps. 

  • scharer
    2019.07.04 - M6.4 Searles Valley, California and 2019.07.05-M7.1 Indian Wells Valley, CA   6 weeks 2 days ago

    M6.9

    since the usgs crashed, here are quick screen shots I was able to grab. I know all are wanting this!

  • oskin
    2019.07.04 - M6.4 Searles Valley, California and 2019.07.05-M7.1 Indian Wells Valley, CA   6 weeks 2 days ago

    Some preliminary reports from field teams on the effects of the 6.9 event at 8:19pm July 5. Ken Hudnut reports that he and those with him in ridgecrest are OK. Ian Pierce reports rupture across Highway 178 at a location 1 mile east of that which occurred on July 4. 

  • huynht
    2019.07.04 - M6.4 Searles Valley, California and 2019.07.05-M7.1 Indian Wells Valley, CA   6 weeks 2 days ago

    From Maggie Ortiz-Millan, Program Manager:

    Earthquake Engineering Research Institute EERI, as part of the California Earthquake Clearinghouse, will begin hosting nightly Clearinghouse Briefings for the M6.4 Searles Valley earthquake today, July 5, 2019.

    Today's briefing will take place at 8 pm Pacific time. The briefing will take place in-person and via GoToMeeting.

    In-person Location:

    For those in the field now, you are encouraged to attend the briefing in person. The physical clearinghouse location will be in Ridgcrest, CA:

    100 W California Avenue

    Ridgecrest, CA

    Suite number tbd

    Virtual GoToMeeting connection information:

    Web Link: https://global.gotomeeting.com/join/476130437
    Call-in Phone number: +1 (224) 501-3412
    Access Code: 476-130-437  
    Please feel free to forward this information to other colleagues who are or may be planning to conduct reconnaissance. 

    A virtual clearinghouse website for the earthquake will be set up soon.

  • dawson
    2019.07.04 - M6.4 Searles Valley, California and 2019.07.05-M7.1 Indian Wells Valley, CA   6 weeks 2 days ago

    Teams are still in the field.  The USGS-CGS team was able to trace out about 7.5 km of surface rupture extending southwest from Highway 178.  One team was able to access the Navy base and we are still waiting for more details regarding how far the rupture extends to the northwest.  Ken Hudnut and Janis Hernandez were also able to complete a helicopter based survey of the area.

    I'm hoping to get some of the waypoints compiled and a preliminary map distributed by tomorrow.

    Also, the CA Earthquake Clearinghouse will be convening at Ridgcrest City Hall 

    100 W California Avenue

    Ridgecrest, CA

    Suite number tbd

     

    Virtual GoToMeeting connection information:

     

    Web Link: https://global.gotomeeting.com/join/476130437
    Call-in Phone number: +1 (224) 501-3412
    Access Code: 476-130-437  

  • fielding
    2019.07.04 - M6.4 Searles Valley, California and 2019.07.05-M7.1 Indian Wells Valley, CA   6 weeks 2 days ago

     The ARIA data system has automatically processed the data from the Copernicus Sentinel-1 data acquired earlier today (UTC; last night California time)  2019-07-05T01:41 Z and 2019-06-23T01:41 Z. As I mentioned earlier, this track 166 covers only areas well to the east of the earthquake epicenter. Since aftershocks and field observations show the rupture extends only southwest (and maybe northwest) of the epicenter, it is not surprising that there is little or no deformation on this interferogram. I provide a quick Google Earth map of the wrapped interferogram (original 2.8 cm color wrap) for the two frames that were processed separately. There might be a few centimeters of broad deformation related to the earthquake, but it is largely hidden by the atmospheric variations.

    I will post the KMZ file and the other data products on the aria-share.jpl.nasa.gov website later today.