This is posted a bit late, as this website just came back online...

SCENARIO Earthquake Aftershock Probabilities Update

12:00 pm PST

Here are updated aftershock probabilities now that 1 hr. 45 min. have passed since the scenario M 7.8 event:

This assumes standard (generic) aftershock parameters for Southern California.  The largest aftershock so far occurred at 11:00 am PST, and had a magnitude of 7.0.  Secondary triggering from this aftershock has been included in this current forecast.

Within the next hour (12:00 pm – 1:00 pm PST) we can expect approximately 23 M ≥ 4 aftershocks, and 2 M ≥ 5 aftershocks.

Within the next 12 hours, we can expect approximately 105 M ≥ 4 aftershocks and 10 M ≥ 5 aftershocks.

The probability, from this time forward, that at least one earthquake larger than M 6 will be triggered is 93%.  The probability that an earthquake larger than M 7 will be triggered is 24%.

The probability, from this time forward, that an earthquake larger than the M 7.8 mainshock will be triggered is 4%.  This probability will fall with time if no exceptionally large aftershock occurs.

Greg,

The model ShakeMap for the M~7 aftershock is available on the USGS web page. 

Egill

Am I joining the geology thread?

== SHAKEOUT SCENARIO FINAL EARTHQUAKE REPORT ==

                   California Integrated Seismic Network

                          http://www.cisn.org

                     USGS/Caltech/CGS/UCB/UCSD/UNR

Version 3: This report supersedes any earlier reports about this event.

This is a computer-generated message that has been reviewed by a

seismologist.

PRINCIPAL EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS  UPDATE

_______________________________

Magnitude       :   7.8 Mw

Time                :    15 October 2009   10:15:00 AM PDT

                        :   15 October 2009   18:15:00 UTC

Coordinates      :   33 deg. 25.2 min. N,  115 deg.  50.4 min. W

Depth                :    6.3 miles (   10 km)

Location Quality  : Excellent

                  1 mi. Bombay Beach, CA

                  6 mi.  Coachella Valley, CA

More Information about this SCENARIO  event and other earthquakes is available at

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqinthenews/2008/shakeout/

ADDITIONAL EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS

________________________________

rms misfit                   :  0.47 seconds

horizontal location error    :   0.3 km

vertical location error      :   0.6 km

maximum azimuthal gap        :    28 degrees

distance to nearest station  :   6.0 km

event ID                     : 999

SOURCE OF INFORMATION/CONTACTS

________________________________

CISN Southern California Management Center

        Caltech Seismological Laboratory

        U.S. Geological Survey

        http://www.cisn.org/scmc.html

________________________________

_______________________________________________

Duty mailing list

Duty@scsnmail.gps.caltech.edu

http://unix1.gps.caltech.edu/mailman/listinfo/duty

It would also be helpful to have responses somehow highlighted by how recent they were.  It took me awhile to realize that some things I was looking for had been posted.

Mike and James are not available right now.  Tom and Kate are working on the geology response.  If you can, you might want to drop in on their thread and offer your advice on priorities.  Thanks, Greg

The NEIC PAGER  results stating how many people were affected by strong ground motion and preliminary casualty estimates should be available as soon as ShakeMap is available.  If instrument shakeMap is not available, the NEIC will generate a model based ShakeMap. 

Egill

That's unfortunate.  Do we have a shakemap estimate from NEIC we could use as a fallback? 

[How] can threads be merged and moved around?  Might make it easier to track if threads can be dealt with that way.

I've tried to contact Jamie via email and phone.  No luck, so will try Ralph.

Sporadic internet service ... am dialing into the EQ Response Call Line

• Number: (218) 936-7979
• Access Code: 565853