Log in to view full website content, join discussions, and to post information.

Recent comments

  • huynht
    2009.10.15-Great California ShakeOut   12 years 49 weeks ago
    • Number: (703) 648-4848
    • Access Code: 68448
  • jrmurray
    2009.10.15-Great California ShakeOut   12 years 49 weeks ago

    I have been in touch with UNAVCO.  Mike Jackson is their event response coordinator this time around.  I requested 20 campaign GPS set-ups which will be delivered to their southern CA field office asap.  I can request additional instruments if it looks like we need them.  They will also start immediate download of daily GPS files for sites in the vicinity of the rupture and follow that with download of high-rate GPS data from those sites.

  • pagem
    2009.10.15-Great California ShakeOut   12 years 49 weeks ago

    This is posted a bit late, as this website just came back online...

    SCENARIO Earthquake Aftershock Probabilities Update

    12:00 pm PST

    Here are updated aftershock probabilities now that 1 hr. 45 min. have passed since the scenario M 7.8 event:

    This assumes standard (generic) aftershock parameters for Southern California.  The largest aftershock so far occurred at 11:00 am PST, and had a magnitude of 7.0.  Secondary triggering from this aftershock has been included in this current forecast.

    Within the next hour (12:00 pm – 1:00 pm PST) we can expect approximately 23 M ≥ 4 aftershocks, and 2 M ≥ 5 aftershocks.

    Within the next 12 hours, we can expect approximately 105 M ≥ 4 aftershocks and 10 M ≥ 5 aftershocks.

    The probability, from this time forward, that at least one earthquake larger than M 6 will be triggered is 93%.  The probability that an earthquake larger than M 7 will be triggered is 24%.

    The probability, from this time forward, that an earthquake larger than the M 7.8 mainshock will be triggered is 4%.  This probability will fall with time if no exceptionally large aftershock occurs.

  • huynht
    2009.10.15-Great California ShakeOut   12 years 49 weeks ago

    SoCal servers were down, and have been brought back up.

  • hauksson
    2009.10.15-Great California ShakeOut   12 years 49 weeks ago

    Greg,

    The model ShakeMap for the M~7 aftershock is available on the USGS web page. 

    Egill

  • beroza
    2009.10.15-Great California ShakeOut   12 years 49 weeks ago

    Yes, you're there!

  • lgrant
    2009.10.15-Great California ShakeOut   12 years 49 weeks ago

    Am I joining the geology thread?

  • beroza
    2009.10.15-Great California ShakeOut   12 years 49 weeks ago

     

  • beroza
    2009.10.15-Great California ShakeOut   12 years 49 weeks ago

    == SHAKEOUT SCENARIO FINAL EARTHQUAKE REPORT ==

                       California Integrated Seismic Network

                              http://www.cisn.org

                         USGS/Caltech/CGS/UCB/UCSD/UNR

    Version 3: This report supersedes any earlier reports about this event.

    This is a computer-generated message that has been reviewed by a

    seismologist.

    PRINCIPAL EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS  UPDATE

    _______________________________

    Magnitude       :   7.8 Mw

    Time                :    15 October 2009   10:15:00 AM PDT

                            :   15 October 2009   18:15:00 UTC

    Coordinates      :   33 deg. 25.2 min. N,  115 deg.  50.4 min. W

    Depth                :    6.3 miles (   10 km)

    Location Quality  : Excellent

                      1 mi. Bombay Beach, CA

                      6 mi.  Coachella Valley, CA

    More Information about this SCENARIO  event and other earthquakes is available at

    http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqinthenews/2008/shakeout/

     

    ADDITIONAL EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS

    ________________________________

    rms misfit                   :  0.47 seconds

    horizontal location error    :   0.3 km

    vertical location error      :   0.6 km

    maximum azimuthal gap        :    28 degrees

    distance to nearest station  :   6.0 km

    event ID                     : 999

     

    SOURCE OF INFORMATION/CONTACTS

    ________________________________

     

    CISN Southern California Management Center

            Caltech Seismological Laboratory

            U.S. Geological Survey

            http://www.cisn.org/scmc.html

    ________________________________

    _______________________________________________

    Duty mailing list

    Duty@scsnmail.gps.caltech.edu

    http://unix1.gps.caltech.edu/mailman/listinfo/duty

     

  • tjordan
    2009.10.15-Great California ShakeOut   12 years 49 weeks ago

    The group leaders may not be monitoring this thread. Email or posting under their group-specific threads may be necessary. One problem is that we're using this system like email.

  • beroza
    2009.10.15-Great California ShakeOut   12 years 49 weeks ago

    It would also be helpful to have responses somehow highlighted by how recent they were.  It took me awhile to realize that some things I was looking for had been posted.

  • beroza
    2009.10.15-Great California ShakeOut   12 years 49 weeks ago

    I just heard from Jamie.  He should be checking in soon.

  • beroza
    2009.10.15-Great California ShakeOut   12 years 49 weeks ago

    Mike and James are not available right now.  Tom and Kate are working on the geology response.  If you can, you might want to drop in on their thread and offer your advice on priorities.  Thanks, Greg

     

  • huynht
    2009.10.15-Great California ShakeOut   12 years 49 weeks ago

    Will try for implementation for next round.

  • hauksson
    2009.10.15-Great California ShakeOut   12 years 49 weeks ago

    The NEIC PAGER  results stating how many people were affected by strong ground motion and preliminary casualty estimates should be available as soon as ShakeMap is available.  If instrument shakeMap is not available, the NEIC will generate a model based ShakeMap. 

    Egill

  • lgrant
    2009.10.15-Great California ShakeOut   12 years 49 weeks ago

    All students in Natural Disasters class did drop, cover and hold. No injuries. Still checking status across campus.

  • beroza
    2009.10.15-Great California ShakeOut   12 years 49 weeks ago

    That's unfortunate.  Do we have a shakemap estimate from NEIC we could use as a fallback? 

  • hauksson
    2009.10.15-Great California ShakeOut   12 years 49 weeks ago

    Greg,

    Unfortunately, all data communications links are out for seismic stations in the area and the SCSN is not able to create a real ShakeMap for this M7 aftershock. 

    Egill

  • ganderso
    2009.10.15-Great California ShakeOut   12 years 49 weeks ago

    [How] can threads be merged and moved around?  Might make it easier to track if threads can be dealt with that way.

  • mcraney
    2009.10.15-Great California ShakeOut   12 years 49 weeks ago

    To group leaders of SCEC geology, geodesy, and seismology disciplinary groups,  

    Please let Tom J and me know asap what funds you need to collect perishable data.  

    Thanks, John

  • beroza
    2009.10.15-Great California ShakeOut   12 years 49 weeks ago

    I've tried to contact Jamie via email and phone.  No luck, so will try Ralph.

  • beroza
    2009.10.15-Great California ShakeOut   12 years 49 weeks ago

    Egill, I see that you are online, are you onboard with this?

  • huynht
    2009.10.15-Great California ShakeOut   12 years 49 weeks ago

    Sporadic internet service ... am dialing into the EQ Response Call Line

    • Number: (218) 936-7979
    • Access Code: 565853

     

  • beroza
    2009.10.15-Great California ShakeOut   12 years 49 weeks ago

    Thanks John,  there was an M 7 aftershock about half an hour after the mainshock.

  • tjordan
    2009.10.15-Great California ShakeOut   12 years 49 weeks ago

    I agree with use of reserve funds for supporting field work. How will you get estimates of expenses to guide allocations?