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  • rolohman
    ShakeOut Response Planning - Geodesy Group   13 years 39 weeks ago
    We're thinking that at this point it might be best to bring the UNAVCO instrumentation to one of the same meetup points as the geologists are using, perhaps in the Indio area. We'll send you a more complete email later on today, but it looks like there are about 5 groups who can deploy an additional 5-10 instruments each, with Rick Bennett's group perhaps requesting a few more than that.
  • blume
    ShakeOut Response Planning - Geodesy Group   13 years 39 weeks ago
    PBO borehole strainmeter, pore pressure and tiltmeter data sets covering the ShakeOut event period are now available at: "Strain Data" http://borehole.unavco.org/bsm/earthquakes/ShakeOut_20081113_Strain "Seismic Data" http://borehole.unavco.org/bsm/earthquakes/ShakeOut_20081113_Seismic "Pore Pressure Data" http://borehole.unavco.org/bsm/earthquakes/ShakeOut_20081113_Pore "Tilt Data " http://borehole.unavco.org/bsm/earthquakes/ShakeOut_20081113_tilt
  • pagem
    2008.11.13-Great Southern California ShakeOut   13 years 39 weeks ago
    Here are updated aftershock probabilities based on the first 3 hours of aftershock data for the scenario event: So far activity is approximately the average expected for California. We are using generic aftershock parameters since we only have 3 hours of aftershock data; therefore these are aftershock estimates that may change. Furthermore, if there are more large secondary aftershocks, the sequence may become more active. So far there have been 11 M>=5 aftershocks. The largest aftershock so far occurred at 12:30 pm PST, and had a magnitude of 7.0. Secondary triggering from this large aftershock has been included in this aftershock forecast. Within the next hour (1 pm - 2:00 pm PST) we can expect approximately 18 M >= 4 aftershocks, and 2 M >=5 aftershocks. Within the next 12 hours, we can expect approximately 90 M >= 4 aftershocks and 9 M >= 5 aftershocks. The probability, at this time, that an earthquake larger than M 6 will be triggered is 86%. The probability that an earthquake larger than M 7 will be triggered is 15%. The probability, at this time, that an earthquake larger than the M 7.8 mainshock will be triggered is 3.1%. This probability will fall with time if no exceptionally large aftershock occurs.
  • beroza
    2008.11.13-Great Southern California ShakeOut   13 years 39 weeks ago
    Just heard from David. It seems you're off and running with the simulation anyway.
  • blume
    ShakeOut Response Planning - Geodesy Group   13 years 39 weeks ago
    The following Shake Out LiDAR emergency response support has been confirmed: Airborne LiDAR -NCALM -UT Austin Terrestrial LiDAR -UNM LiDAR Lab -NCALM Other support pending. No word yet on funding sources/commitments from NSF, etc. to proceed further. More info at the UNAVCO bulletin board: http://wes.unavco.org/voce/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=180
  • blume
    ShakeOut Response Planning - Geodesy Group   13 years 39 weeks ago
    Let us know later today or tomorrow morning how many systems you need driven from Boulder and roughly where and we'll make a rendezvous plan. We are working on per-station budget estimates for recon, permitting, and construction of new permanent GPS stations in the rupture zone - will have that and landownership maps of the rupture zone posted by mid-afternoon.
  • rolohman
    2008.11.13-Great Southern California ShakeOut   13 years 39 weeks ago
    I'm checking with him now to find out how many people they'd have available as well and if they would be interested in some of the UNAVCO instrumentation.
  • beroza
    ShakeOut Response Planning - Geology Group   13 years 39 weeks ago
    That site is on the San Jacinto Fault?
  • owen
    2008.11.13-Great Southern California ShakeOut   13 years 39 weeks ago
    We downloaded hourly rinex files from CRTN and UNAVCO PBO archives (77 stations were available 1 hour and 20 minutes after the earthquake), estimated post-earthquake positions using GIPSY and Real-Time GIPSY orbits. Have attached a map with our estimated co-seismic displacements. blue vectors == estimated displacements red vector == 1 meter displacement Cheers, Susan Owen JPL
  • rolohman
    ShakeOut Response Planning - Geodesy Group   13 years 39 weeks ago
    I'm now calling PI's who'd expressed interest in this activity to see how many sites they'd actually expect to request through UNAVCO. One area that we didn't discuss in detail previously was the relative importance of getting dense and geographically extensive measurements immediately after the earthquake to map out the coseismic field as much as possible vs. setting up sites for longer term postseismic studies. It sounds like Scripps would be doing some of the latter in Imperial Valley, which would be a great idea in this particular scenario.
  • hough
    ShakeOut Response Planning - Geology Group   13 years 39 weeks ago
    Surface rupture measurements from the field Scott Lydeen - Lanmore Parkway, Terra Largo Golf Course, Indio (-116.1861, 34.7404) 4.7m right-lateral offset Katherine Kendrick - San Jacinto 1 (-117.2891, 34.0615) Road edge right-lateral offset fracture zone in asphalt - 15cm net slip azimuth of fracture zone: 335 degrees Slip vector: azimuth 310 degrees, plunge 57 degrees
  • lgrant
    ShakeOut Response Planning - Geology Group   13 years 40 weeks ago
    UCI campus participated fully in the Duck-Cover-Hold drill. Messages were sent out to telephones through the camps ZOTAlert system and to classrooms via internet or phone alerts. Information was posted on the main campus website and sent out to the campus community via email from the Chancellor. Pre-designated staff organized the post-earthquake response by academic unit. Overall, it looks like the campus fared well in this exercise.
  • beroza
    2008.11.13-Great Southern California ShakeOut   13 years 40 weeks ago
    Just a note to everyone that Jim Brune said that he thought Reno had ~6 instruments that were close to being ready to go. He said that Glenn Biasi was the person to contact about this.
  • beroza
    2008.11.13-Great Southern California ShakeOut   13 years 40 weeks ago
    I have an email in to Dave Wald about this. I'm not sure that this is in the works, so I don't think you can depend on it (but we'll see).
  • beroza
    2008.11.13-Great Southern California ShakeOut   13 years 40 weeks ago
    Thanks for doing that. I'm glad to hear CGS' positive response. I also agree that faster availability would be desireable. I thought the IRIS policy was 1 year, but in any case, it is an upper bound. As I understand it, they store the data for you(the PI of an experiment), but keep it proprietary until you give the OK to release it. If we agreed to release data earlier than the upper limit for any future SCEC aftershock deployment, I think they would facilitate that. You're right though, that we should follow up about this to be sure.
  • blume
    ShakeOut Response Planning - Geodesy Group   13 years 40 weeks ago
    Jess, See below for what we have available, FB
  • blume
    ShakeOut Response Planning - Geodesy Group   13 years 40 weeks ago
    UNAVCO is downloading high-rate and standard GPS data from PBO stations near the epicenter, and we are responding to InSAR and LiDAR requests as well. We have a live web presence with links to data sets and we encourage you find all details and post more on the UNAVCO discussion forum linked there as well. http://www.unavco.org/support/event-response/event-response.html We have at least 40 campaign GPS systems available in Boulder and many field personnel and vehicles availablet to drive from there as soon as requested. PBO field staff are in Riverside and El Centro and available to help immediately as well. Please contact me directly 303-579-9952 as needed. Freddy Blume
  • beroza
    2008.11.13-Great Southern California ShakeOut   13 years 40 weeks ago
    I heard back from James Fowler on this. In addition to Jim and David, the list of people at the instrument center who could be contacted to initiate a RAMP request is: Marcos Alvarez Bruce Beaudoin Noel Barstow Mike Fort Tim Parker
  • yule
    ShakeOut Response Planning - Geology Group   13 years 40 weeks ago
    Hey there. The response to ShakeOut here on campus was very positive. The 'earthquake sound bite' was broadcast to our classrooms and students and faculty alike 'ducked, covered, and held on' for the duration. Many classes (several hundred people) then gathered for a Q and A on the quadrangle; questions engaged the crowd until about 1045 a.m. Assuming damage is negligible here on campus, my students and I would be preparing to help with a field response. We have one 4WD truck, a tablet PC, GPS, surveying gear, cell phones, camping gear, etc. If the I-5/Hwy 14 interchange is intact, our easiest place to get to would be the Hwy 14 crossing. Conceivably, we could be there in one hour or so. Awaiting orders.... (626-590-9134) Doug
  • hough
    2008.11.13-Great Southern California ShakeOut   13 years 40 weeks ago
    We have checked in with Tony Shakal at CGS. He gives his okay to (hypothetical!) portable deployments at CGS sites, with caveats: 1) PLEASE be conscientious about interactions with property owners; assure them that portable deployments do not change any of the usual operating conditions/agreements; and 2) He emphasizes the need for open data availability -- I take this to mean faster availability than the usual 2-yr delivery deadline to IRIS. This is an issue we should revisit once the exercise dust settles.
  • dolan
    2008.11.13-Great Southern California ShakeOut   13 years 40 weeks ago
    Just spoke with Katherine Kendrick via both cell and satellite phone. Her correct satellite number is 8816-414-61243. This evening, let's try to have all field teams along the southern SAF try to meet up in Indio at Indian Canyon Drive just north of I-10 intersection with 19th Street. thi is an empty corner and is close to both the freeway and the SAF. Le'ts try for a 6:30-7 PM meeting time (an hour after dark), with the udnerstanding that some field etams may still be out later than that. James
  • pagem
    2008.11.13-Great Southern California ShakeOut   13 years 40 weeks ago
    Here are updated aftershock probabilities based on the first 1.5 hours of aftershock data for the scenario event: So far activity is slightly below the average expected for California. We are still using generic aftershock parameters since we only have 1.5 hours of aftershock data; therefore these are aftershock estimates that may change. Furthermore, if there are large secondary aftershocks, the sequence may become more active. So far there have been 5 M>=5 aftershocks. The largest aftershock so far occurred at 10:44 am PST, and had a magnitude of 5.7. Within the next hour (11:30 am - 12:30 pm PST) we can expect approximately 22 M >= 4 aftershocks, and 2 M >=5 aftershocks. Within the next 12 hours, we can expect approximately 97 M >= 4 aftershocks and 10 M >= 5 aftershocks. The probability, at this time, that an earthquake larger than the M 7.8 mainshock will be triggered is 3%. This probability will fall with time if no exceptionally large aftershock occurs.
  • rolohman
    2008.11.13-Great Southern California ShakeOut   13 years 40 weeks ago
    Here's a final kmz file with the site lists ordered by Duncan Agnew (time since last occupation), along with the continuous site list and some other information that we used to make our initial requests.
  • arrowsmi
    ShakeOut Response Planning - Geology Group   13 years 40 weeks ago
    Hi all, we hope all is well there. We would be gearing up to drive your way to help with the response, but we expect to encounter problems on the I-10 connection from Phoenix to Indio. I think we could come in either from the northeast and east or southeast. We would have several students, GPS, tablets, surveying equipment, etc., camping and other equipment to take care of ourselves. We just want to know where we will be most helpful. We can be in position in a few hours. ramon
  • rolohman
    2008.11.13-Great Southern California ShakeOut   13 years 40 weeks ago
    Attachments have txt added as suffix to allow uploading