Here are updated aftershock probabilities based on the first 3 hours of aftershock data for the scenario event: So far activity is approximately the average expected for California. We are using generic aftershock parameters since we only have 3 hours of aftershock data; therefore these are aftershock estimates that may change. Furthermore, if there are more large secondary aftershocks, the sequence may become more active. So far there have been 11 M>=5 aftershocks. The largest aftershock so far occurred at 12:30 pm PST, and had a magnitude of 7.0. Secondary triggering from this large aftershock has been included in this aftershock forecast. Within the next hour (1 pm - 2:00 pm PST) we can expect approximately 18 M >= 4 aftershocks, and 2 M >=5 aftershocks. Within the next 12 hours, we can expect approximately 90 M >= 4 aftershocks and 9 M >= 5 aftershocks. The probability, at this time, that an earthquake larger than M 6 will be triggered is 86%. The probability that an earthquake larger than M 7 will be triggered is 15%. The probability, at this time, that an earthquake larger than the M 7.8 mainshock will be triggered is 3.1%. This probability will fall with time if no exceptionally large aftershock occurs.

The following Shake Out LiDAR emergency response support has been confirmed: Airborne LiDAR -NCALM -UT Austin Terrestrial LiDAR -UNM LiDAR Lab -NCALM Other support pending. No word yet on funding sources/commitments from NSF, etc. to proceed further. More info at the UNAVCO bulletin board: http://wes.unavco.org/voce/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=180

I'm checking with him now to find out how many people they'd have available as well and if they would be interested in some of the UNAVCO instrumentation.

We downloaded hourly rinex files from CRTN and UNAVCO PBO archives (77 stations were available 1 hour and 20 minutes after the earthquake), estimated post-earthquake positions using GIPSY and Real-Time GIPSY orbits. Have attached a map with our estimated co-seismic displacements. blue vectors == estimated displacements red vector == 1 meter displacement Cheers, Susan Owen JPL

Surface rupture measurements from the field Scott Lydeen - Lanmore Parkway, Terra Largo Golf Course, Indio (-116.1861, 34.7404) 4.7m right-lateral offset Katherine Kendrick - San Jacinto 1 (-117.2891, 34.0615) Road edge right-lateral offset fracture zone in asphalt - 15cm net slip azimuth of fracture zone: 335 degrees Slip vector: azimuth 310 degrees, plunge 57 degrees

Just a note to everyone that Jim Brune said that he thought Reno had ~6 instruments that were close to being ready to go. He said that Glenn Biasi was the person to contact about this.

Thanks for doing that. I'm glad to hear CGS' positive response. I also agree that faster availability would be desireable. I thought the IRIS policy was 1 year, but in any case, it is an upper bound. As I understand it, they store the data for you(the PI of an experiment), but keep it proprietary until you give the OK to release it. If we agreed to release data earlier than the upper limit for any future SCEC aftershock deployment, I think they would facilitate that. You're right though, that we should follow up about this to be sure.

UNAVCO is downloading high-rate and standard GPS data from PBO stations near the epicenter, and we are responding to InSAR and LiDAR requests as well. We have a live web presence with links to data sets and we encourage you find all details and post more on the UNAVCO discussion forum linked there as well. http://www.unavco.org/support/event-response/event-response.html We have at least 40 campaign GPS systems available in Boulder and many field personnel and vehicles availablet to drive from there as soon as requested. PBO field staff are in Riverside and El Centro and available to help immediately as well. Please contact me directly 303-579-9952 as needed. Freddy Blume

Hey there. The response to ShakeOut here on campus was very positive. The 'earthquake sound bite' was broadcast to our classrooms and students and faculty alike 'ducked, covered, and held on' for the duration. Many classes (several hundred people) then gathered for a Q and A on the quadrangle; questions engaged the crowd until about 1045 a.m. Assuming damage is negligible here on campus, my students and I would be preparing to help with a field response. We have one 4WD truck, a tablet PC, GPS, surveying gear, cell phones, camping gear, etc. If the I-5/Hwy 14 interchange is intact, our easiest place to get to would be the Hwy 14 crossing. Conceivably, we could be there in one hour or so. Awaiting orders.... (626-590-9134) Doug

Just spoke with Katherine Kendrick via both cell and satellite phone. Her correct satellite number is 8816-414-61243. This evening, let's try to have all field teams along the southern SAF try to meet up in Indio at Indian Canyon Drive just north of I-10 intersection with 19th Street. thi is an empty corner and is close to both the freeway and the SAF. Le'ts try for a 6:30-7 PM meeting time (an hour after dark), with the udnerstanding that some field etams may still be out later than that. James

Here's a final kmz file with the site lists ordered by Duncan Agnew (time since last occupation), along with the continuous site list and some other information that we used to make our initial requests.