SHAKEOUT SCENARIO: ** SCSN Moment Tensor Solution Message ** REAL-TIME SOLUTION: NOT REVIEWED Inversion Method: Complete Waveform Number of Stations used: 5 Stations: CI.BC3 CI.BLY CI.BAR CI.WSS CI.EDW2 Real-Time Solution: ------------------- Event ID : 999 Magnitude : 6.7 Depth (km) : 8.5 Origin Time : 11/13/2008 18:00:00:00 Latitude : 33.42 Longitude : -115.84 Further Information at: http://www.usgs.gov/homepage/science_features/shakeout.asp ####### ################### ######################### #########################---- ##########################------- ----#####################---------- --------#################------------ ------------#############-------------- ---------------########---------------- ------------------#####------------------ ----------------------------------------- ------------------###------------------ P -----------------######---------------- ---------------###########------------- ---------------##############---------- -------------##################-------- -----------#####################----- ---------########################-- -------########################## ---########################## ############## ######## ########### T ##### ##### Lower Hemisphere Equiangle Projection ============= Station Information ============== Name Distance Azimuth VR ZCore ------------------------------------------------- CI.BC3 78.481 32.638 54.886 17.00 CI.BLY 149.957 58.925 53.834 26.00 CI.BAR 82.836 239.638 4.368 17.00 CI.WSS 282.531 296.620 40.300 46.00 CI.EDW2 279.052 316.938 58.072 44.00

The California Real Time GPS Network (CRTN) detected a large strain event starting at 10:00 AM local time, propagating from the north of the Salton Sea to the NW along the SAF fault. A movie of the event can be seen at NASA's GPS Explorer at http://geodemo-c.ucsd.edu/gridsphere/gridsphere?cid=EWS. We will post synthetic total displacement waveforms shortly. To login to GPS Explorer, use login:guest; password:guest -- Yehuda

== SHAKEOUT SCENARIO: AFTERSHOCK PROBABILITY REPORT == Southern California Seismic Network: a cooperative project of U.S. Geological Survey, Pasadena, California Caltech Seismological Laboratory, Pasadena, California Version 1: This report supersedes any earlier probability reports about this event. PRINCIPAL EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS _______________________________ Magnitude : 6.7 Ml Time : 13 November 2008 10:00:00 AM PDT : 13 November 2008 18:00:00 UTC Coordinates : 33 deg. 25.2 min. N, 115 deg. 50.4 min. W Depth : 6.3 miles ( 10 km) Location Quality : Excellent 1 mi. Bombay Beach, CA 2 mi. Coachella Valley, CA More Information about this SCENARIO event and other earthquakes is available at http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqinthenews/2008/shakeout/ STRONG AFTERSHOCKS (Magnitude 5 and larger) - At this time (immediately after the mainshock) the probability of a strong and possibly damaging aftershock IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS is greater than 85 PERCENT. EARTHQUAKES LARGER THAN THE MAINSHOCK - Most likely, the recent mainshock will be the largest in the sequence. However, there is a small chance (APPROXIMATELY 5 TO 10 PERCENT) of an earthquake equal to or larger than this mainshock in the next 7 days. WEAK AFTERSHOCKS (Magnitude 3 to 5) - In addition, up to approximately 300 SMALL AFTERSHOCKS are expected in the same 7-DAY PERIOD and may be felt locally. This probability report is based on the statistics of aftershocks typical for California. This is not an exact prediction, but only a rough guide to expected aftershock activity. This probability report may be revised as more information becomes available. Background Information About Aftershocks Like most earthquakes, the recent earthquake is expected to be followed by numerous aftershocks. Aftershocks are additional earthquakes that occur after the mainshock and in the same geographic area. Usually, aftershocks are smaller than the mainshock, but occasionally an aftershock may be strong enough to be felt widely throughout the area and may cause additional damage, particularly to structures already weakened in the mainshock. As a rule of thumb, aftershocks of magnitude 5 and larger are considered potentially damaging. Aftershocks are most common immediately after the mainshock; their average number per day decreases rapidly as time passes. Aftershocks are most likely to be felt in the first few days after the mainshock, but may be felt weeks, months, or even years afterwards. In general, the larger the mainshock, the longer its aftershocks will be felt. Aftershocks tend to occur near the mainshock, but the exact geographic pattern of the aftershocks varies from earthquake to earthquake and is not predictable. The larger the mainshock, the larger the area of aftershocks. While there is no "hard" cutoff distance beyond which an earthquake is totally incapable of triggering an aftershock, the vast majority of aftershocks are located close to the mainshock. As a rule of thumb, a magnitude 6 mainshock may have aftershocks up to 10 to 20 miles away, while a magnitude 7 mainshock may have aftershocks as far as 30 to 50 miles away.

== SHAKEOUT SCENARIO PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE REPORT == California Integrated Seismic Network http://www.cisn.org USGS/Caltech/CGS/UCB/UCSD/UNR Version 2: This report supersedes any earlier reports about this event. This is a computer-generated message and has not yet been reviewed by a seismologist. PRINCIPAL EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS: UPDATE ______________________________ _ Magnitude : 7.4 ME Time : 13 November 2008 10:00:00 AM PDT : 13 November 2008 18:00:00 UTC Coordinates : 33 deg. 25.2 min. N, 115 deg. 50.4 min. W Depth : 6.3 miles ( 10 km) Location Quality : Excellent 1 mi. Bombay Beach, CA 6 mi. Coachella Valley, CA More Information about this SCENARIO event and other earthquakes is available at http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqinthenews/2008/shakeout/ ADDITIONAL EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS ________________________________ rms misfit : 0.47 seconds horizontal location error : 0.3 km vertical location error : 0.6 km maximum azimuthal gap : 28 degrees distance to nearest station : 6.0 km event ID : 999 SOURCE OF INFORMATION/CONTACTS ________________________________ CISN Southern California Management Center Caltech Seismological Laboratory U.S. Geological Survey http://www.cisn.org/scmc.html ________________________________ _______________________________________________ Duty mailing list Duty@scsnmail.gps.caltech.edu

Real time stations only.

We are able to dial out via phone.

The policy for IRIS RAMP (Rapid Array Mobilization Program) requests for equipment can be found at: http://www.passcal.nmt.edu/information/Policies/RAMP_policy.html To activate a RAMP, call or send email to: Jim Fowler (575) 835-5072 jim@iris.edu or David Simpson (202) 682-2220 simpson@iris.edu Note that Jim's area code is currently incorrectly listed on the web page as '505'. He is going to get that corrected to '575'.

Geodesy Colleagues, Attached is an information sheet prepared by SIO/SOPAC and JPL containing IT and field resources available in response to a large earthquake in southern California. A new item is hourly RINEX files that are posted on the SOPAC archive from the California Real Time Network (CRTN). The list of CRTN stations is also attached (includes USGS, PBO and SOPAC stations). Please note the footnotes on the bottom of station list. As indicated we have 3 GPS sets with PDA’s that can be use for post-seismic field surveys using CRTN. This message is intended to support USGS and SCEC efforts during the ShakeOut exercise, and during any large event that may actually occur. In addition, both of our groups plan to participate in the ShakeOut and will post the details on the SCEC and UNAVCO forums, as well as on NASA’s GPS Explorer. Let us know if you have questions or comments on any of these resources. -- Yehuda *********************************************** Yehuda Bock e-mail: ybock@ucsd.edu Research Geodesist Phone: (858) 245-9518 & Senior Lecturer Fax: (858) 534-9873 Director, Scripps Orbit and Permanent Array Center (SOPAC - http://sopac.ucsd.edu/) Director, California Spatial Reference Center (CSRC - http://csrc.ucsd.edu/)

Prior to ShakeOut Event: - Establish a modeling account at SDSC for rapid simulation. - Load a TeraShake region velocity mesh. - Decimate the mesh to 400m to reduce the simulation run time - Arrange "on-demand" TeraGrid reservation with SDSC and other sites. During Earthquake - Duck and Cover After Shaking Stops - Based on initial hypocenter, focal mechanism, and slip distribution, select an appropriate CyberShake SRF rupture. There are north-breaking, southern San Andreas ruptures in the CyberShake catalog of approximately the right magnitude. - Configure a 0.25Hz wave propagation simulation using AWP-Olsen at SDSC. - Run simulation. Estimated run time is about 1 hour. After Simulation Completes - Create a cumulative peak Spectral Acceleration Map 6Seconds - Post on SCEC EQ response site - Create a instantaneous ground motion animation - Post on SCEC EQ response web site. After Data Products are Posted - Based on feedback to first result, configure and 0.5Hz simulation with revised source description, hypocenter, and magnitude.

Call into the SCEC conference line at 10:30 AM PDT Monday 11/3 to coordinate Geodesy issues: 1. Quick turnaround of standard rate data from PBO stations 2. Failover from Pasadena to Boulder of dial-up downloads from USGS/SCIGN permanent stations. 3. High-rate download policy and procedures from PBO stations. 4. Data policy as applied to campaign hardware. 5. Options for delivering campaign hardware from Boulder to affected areas. 6. Available field support from PBO field offices and coordination. 7. Actual high-rate data downloads TBD for ShakeOut 8. etc.

I recommend a link to a web tool we developed that allows one to zoom in on seismicity more than on the 'recenteqs' map tool. http://www.scign.org/mapsurfer/mapsurfer/index.html The attached figure was generated using mapsurfer. Annotations were added using Illustrator. Later, Bob Dollar and I will work up a figure showing background seismicity at this location. Also, I'm posting a re-print of our 1989 GRL paper about fault interaction in this area. Ken