I was able to "fly" the length of the fault rupture* on the afternoon of the 13th to confirm the extent of surface faulting. Attached are waypoints and observations as we flew along the rupture. *courtesy of Google Earth in lieu of Civil Air Patrol

I assume the Pasadena operations are history..... Will (can) SCEC continue to communicate? The Clearinghouse is in operation. Email can be sent to cgs_golden_guardian@conservation.ca.gov. My cell number is 916-813-2274.

That hadn't occurred to me - interesting idea. Are the permitting issues to consider with their deployment?

So that critical, hypothetical 3 am phone call would be directed to Golden.

The USGS Pasadena exercise is winding down -- Erik, Morgan, and I are here for just a few more minutes. An advance heads up: if an especially large aftershock were to strike within the LA metropolitan region in the wee hours of the morning, the Pasadena office and Seismo Lab would be knocked off line, and Golden would be stepping in with primary reporting authority and response responsibilities.

Incoming fault rupture data is available at http://scec.usc.edu/eqresponse/?q=node/66/webform-results/table

Thanks for sending those in. A number of people have reported degraded sat phone performance today. That couldn't be because of the ShakeOut exercise, could it? If so, they would likely not be very useful in a real event.

Just gave 12 virtual slip measurements to Erik ounders over the telephone. Dispalcement averaging ~5-6 m, poure right-lateral, very little vertical. Offset efatures include paved and dirt roads, fence lines, a motorcycle track, and an offset... baseball field and golf fairway. Having trouble with two of the three USC sat phoens, unfortunately. They all worked fine two weeks ago, si this is opuzzling and a bit worrisome...

From PBO Permitting Coordinator Kyle Bohnenstiehl: Plan on having $1500 per site available for permitting with private land (both individuals and corporations). We will not be able to get on federal, state or county/city land on short notice. This is due to the fact that regulations would get in the way. Private landowner cooperation in this case is almost 100% assured, possibly for no cost in most cases. However, having $1500 available per site would ensure success. Hearst and some large ranching enterprises (Varian, Vogel, etc) might want more $$. It is just hard to say without asking. I called Angeles National Forest and spoke to my contact there about a situation just like this. She said it is possible that under an emergency situation we could get out on their lands (non-wilderness) in a week or so but she was unwilling to commit or ask her management unless it was a real situation. This is something USGS and UNAVCO should look into in the future. UNAVCO would want to be the permit holder on these sites. We would use our standard form. I estimate it would take me 4 hours of labor to permit a site however in reality the on site people would probably be taking care of most of the paperwork and just getting a copy back to me. Figure around $300/site for permitting overhead in addition to land rental fees. Our contract recon costs averaged around $3500 per site during PBO. All of this expertise resides in the So Cal area and I would assume these same contractors would be available for this type of work in case of emergency. Contractors could probably identify a suitable site at the rate of 1 a day depending on how impaired their mobility is.

Scott - I'm plotting flt rupture observations in GIS. Your coordinates plot near the Ludlow flt in Mojave Desert. I'm assuming coordinates actually are: -116.1861, 33.7404 These coordinates plot on SAF where it crosses Landmark Parkway in Terra Golf Course, Indio. Bill Bryant

Here are updated aftershock probabilities based on the first 4.5 hours of aftershock data for the scenario event: So far activity is approximately the average expected for California. We are using generic aftershock parameters since we only have 4.5 hours of aftershock data; therefore these are aftershock estimates that may change. Furthermore, if there are more large secondary aftershocks, the sequence may become more active. So far there have been 19 M≥5 aftershocks. The largest aftershock occurred at 12:30 pm PST, and had a magnitude of 7.0. Secondary triggering from this aftershock has been included in the current forecast. Within the next hour (2:30 pm - 3:30 pm PST) we can expect approximately 11 M ≥ 4 aftershocks, and 1 M ≥5 aftershock. Within the next 12 hours, we can expect approximately 70 M ≥ 4 aftershocks and 7 M ≥ 5 aftershocks. The probability, from this time forward, that at least one earthquake larger than M 6 will be triggered is 83%. The probability that an earthquake larger than M 7 will be triggered is 14%. The probability, from this time forward, that an earthquake larger than the M 7.8 mainshock will be triggered is 2.9%. This probability will fall with time if no exceptionally large aftershock occurs.

Note: The Clearinhouse is now in operation at the USGS in Menlo Park. We will be monitoring this webpage and will be maintaining the Clearinhouse's webpage: www.eqclearinghouse.org. Please register to log in if you want to post written information. We have no central phone number just yet. In the meantime, my cell phone number is 916-813-2274.......Ralph Loyd